Republicans worry an Iran deal is evaporating — and could spike gas prices

As President Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran unravels, Republicans are becoming increasingly worried that a renewed conflict could cause gas prices to spike — just as voters head to the polls in November.

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“We should all be focused on the real-world impacts of Iran,” one House Republican told MS NOW on Thursday. “But if we were looking at the political piece, it’s really bad news for Republicans.”

This GOP lawmaker noted that a continued war with Iran wouldn’t just push oil prices up, it would also “strike a blow to the general competence narrative.”

“I mean, what in the world has Trump been doing?” this Republican asked. “Why is this going so poorly? And is there any real plan for how to get out?”

Republicans say they know gas prices “play a disproportionately large psychological role in elections,” as this lawmaker put it. “These numbers are two feet tall and posted on every other corner across our towns and cities.” 

The lawmaker added that most people don’t know how much they’re paying for many goods. “But they do know what they’re paying for a gallon of gas,” the lawmaker said. “And that is just gonna be a constant reminder that prices are not as low as they were when the president took office.”

Another House Republican who also spoke to MS NOW on the condition of anonymity said it was “obviously our hope” that the Iran war would be over soon, emphasizing that a resumption of the war would hurt the GOP politically.

“The majority of us in Congress, especially Republicans, need him to finish the job quickly,” this member said. “Politically, it’s damaging, but when you look at it strategically across the globe, I think we need to finish the job.” 

And yet another House Republican speculated that gas prices would greatly fluctuate with the “on-again, off-again, on-again, off-again” Iran negotiations.

“It’s definitely concerning,” this GOP lawmaker said of rising gas prices. “But we also see how fast they drop once there’s a sign that we’re gonna find a solution.”

Privately, most GOP lawmakers are “in the camp of ‘it’s time to wrap this thing up,’” according to a Republican operative who requested anonymity to speak candidly about conversations between the Hill and the White House.

This operative added that, publicly, congressional Republicans have been “largely unified” on Iran. But that delicate unity could quickly fall apart if the Iran war resumes and gas prices once again push north of $4 a gallon nationally.

Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kans., acknowledged some of that anxiety during a local radio interview this week.

“Certainly, I think that the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October,” Marshall said. “If we’re going to do something, we’ve got to rip the bandage off and just go in there.”

Republicans are keenly aware of the political need for Trump to reach a deal with Iran.

“War is inherently unpopular. The longer it goes on, the more unpopular it becomes,” Matthew Barlett, a former State Department appointee in Trump’s first term and now an MS NOW political analyst, said. “Forever wars never started as forever wars, and that’s part of the issue.”

As much as Trump and Republicans want to avoid a “forever war,” however, a seemingly stable situation in Iran has recently been getting rockier.

The concerns have intensified as negotiations with Iran have stalled and the ceasefire has deteriorated. This week, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, Iran again disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” raising fears that the conflict could escalate again and further pressure global oil markets.

“As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump told reporters. “They’re liars.”

As the two countries work toward a deal, negotiations have largely stalled — and the odds of a long-term agreement are winnowing.

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“I’m not sure I want to make a deal,” Trump said this week. “Let’s just finish the job.”

Several Republicans argued the president’s public comments are only complicating the negotiations.

As one former Trump official told MS NOW, every time Trump escalates his rhetoric toward Iran, “you basically have an economic earthquake here at home.”

“When the president threatens scorched earth, who all is getting burned?” this official asked. “The reality is a lot of people are getting burned back home.”

The former administration official added that anytime Trump speaks about the war, “I think a lot of Republicans wish he didn’t.”

Fuel prices have come down around 70 cents from their highs in late May, according to AAA’s national average tracker, after prices moderated in the wake of the temporary U.S.-Iran agreement that was signed in June. 

But Republicans warn there could be a steep political price to pay in November if prices go back up again.

As one Republican strategist said in a text message, “they better keep going down.”

Of course, not every Republican is so concerned with a renewed standoff with Iran. 

While retiring Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., acknowledged there could be more pain at the pump as a result of the ceasefire dissolving — “Nobody likes higher gas prices. I don’t like them,” he said — he also suggested the only way to deal with Iran “is through force.” 

“Are you gonna let the gas prices determine how we fight this war?” Bacon asked.

As much as some Republicans are prioritizing making a good deal with Iran rather than a speedy one, Trump and the GOP’s political woes have only been exacerbated by his inconsistent messaging and actions on the economy. 

Democrats have seized on Trump’s self-enrichment to argue he’s more focused on his own financial situation than the average American’s, and the White House has consistently struggled to keep Trump on message on the economy, even when the president stands to score obvious political points.

One of the most recent examples of Trump’s shaky economic rhetoric came two weeks ago, when Trump suddenly canceled a signing ceremony for a bipartisan housing affordability bill. His aides spent the morning promoting the bill and touting its effect on lowering home prices — only for Trump to say the legislation was “of minor importance” and suggest he may even oppose the measure.

“I don’t think he necessarily cares and I don’t think there’s someone who’s going to get him on message,” one of the GOP operatives who spoke to MS NOW said, adding that “not every time has it mattered either.”

“Trump has been around over a decade now in our political world,” the operative said. “The guy seems to always find a way to figure it out.”

Still, as the former official said, “in order to win, in order to get the crowd rallying behind you, you need to score points.”

This person noted that the GOP’s tax cut bill was now a year old. And continuing to tout that legislation — particularly when recent polls show the law’s popularity is 15 points underwater — may only get Republicans so far.

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“This year, we need a new play,” the former official said.