{"id":479,"date":"2026-07-27T15:42:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T15:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/longdistancemoversusas.com\/?p=479"},"modified":"2026-07-27T15:42:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T15:42:54","slug":"why-michigan-is-the-center-of-the-political-universe-for-the-next-2-weeks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/longdistancemoversusas.com\/?p=479","title":{"rendered":"Why Michigan is the center of the political universe for the next 2 weeks"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

For the next week-plus, prepare to hear a lot about Michigan. President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at a General Motors plant there on Monday afternoon, and Michigan\u2019s statewide primaries are next week, including the ultra-important Democratic Senate showdown between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens.<\/p>\n

Read more Trump giving U.S.-Iran talks \u2018some space,\u2019 his U.N. ambassador says<\/a><\/p>\n

The location of Trump\u2019s speech matters for one big reason: Milford, a suburban city in the western reaches of wealthy Oakland County, is a traditional GOP stronghold that has swung very hard to Democrats in recent years. The city is in the 7th Congressional District, one of the<\/em> key battlegrounds in the national House map. It was Elissa Slotkin\u2019s seat; she flipped it blue in 2018 and gave it up to run for U.S. Senate in 2024. Although she carried it in that election, the seat flipped red in the House race in 2024: Tom Barrett won it.<\/p>\n

Barrett, who has voted twice to curb Trump\u2019s war powers in Iran, is expected to attend Trump\u2019s event on Monday. That alone is worth paying attention to, and is a nice encapsulation of a reality that MS NOW\u2019s Vaughn Hillyard and Jake Traylor reported Monday morning: Top Trump political advisers are giving the green light to Republican elected officials who feel they need to distance themselves from Trump.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a major shift for a circle that has long prized loyalty to Trump above all else. And the question is to what extent that\u2019s a signal of his relative weakness at the moment. (On the other hand, it\u2019s also a sign that his grip on the GOP is strong enough that he can allow dissent without risking control.) Allowing distance and supporting those who disagree with him goes against Trump\u2019s nature, and could be read as a sign of the polling reality he faces, which is dire, and Republicans\u2019 electoral fortunes, which flow from there.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s net job approval is -22 points: 39% approve and 61% disapprove in a CBS News\/YouGov poll released Sunday.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s obviously bad for Republicans, but it would be a mistake to think that Democrats are on a glide path to a majority. \u201cSince late May, the Democratic lead on the generic ballot in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk from 7.9 points to a more modest 4.9-point reading,\u201d The Cook Political Report\u2019s Amy Walter wrote last week. \u201cThe slippage for Democrats during the same period in the Silver Bulletin average was more modest, going from a high of 7.1 points to 6.2 points today. This shift in the generic ballot average coincided with the success of the progressive left in primaries across the country.\u201d And that\u2019s precisely what frightens many Democrats in places like the Wolverine State.<\/p>\n

What Democrats fear in Michigan<\/h2>\n

Michigan\u2019s 7th Congressional District should be winnable, if competitive, for Democrats in the general election. But it\u2019s the locus of a vicious three-way House primary set to be settled next week \u2014 one that members of the Democratic establishment in both Michigan and Washington, D.C., worry could make the climb to a House majority all the steeper.<\/p>\n

The Democratic primary in Michigan\u2019s 7th District pits former Ukraine Ambassador Bridget Brink against former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam (Slotkin\u2019s pick) and also against progressive Will Lawrence (a co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, a political advocacy organization focused on climate action, who has complained in the recent past about Black political leaders being \u201ca pillar, frankly, for establishment, capitalist, imperialist American power\u201d).<\/p>\n

The sense on the ground is that Lawrence is surging, a perception aided by the recent string of victories of Democratic Socialists of America candidates elsewhere, and by Lawrence\u2019s ties with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and El-Sayed \u2014 who, while not a DSA member, rallied with him last week.<\/p>\n

The concern in Washington is that if nominated, Lawrence will lose. (Don\u2019t be surprised if Trump singles out Lawrence or El-Sayed during his speech in Michigan on Monday, betting that if he attacks them, he\u2019ll cause some Democratic voters to rally to their side and speed along the outcome Republicans are hoping for.)<\/p>\n

The DSA is glad for the attention. But more establishment Democrats are concerned that any attention on the DSA is terrible for the Democratic Party\u2019s brand. Witness Sunday\u2019s appearance of DSA co-chair Megan Romer on \u201cFox News Sunday,\u201d in which she reiterated the party\u2019s platform stances, including abolishing borders, blanket amnesty for people living in the U.S. illegally, defunding the Pentagon and abolishing prisons. (A winning message in battlegrounds this is not, as Rahm Emanuel opined in The Wall Street Journal last week.)<\/p>\n

Read more Katy Perry slams White House for using her \u2018Firework\u2019 song in Iran war video<\/a><\/p>\n

That concern about losing winnable races is also front and center in Michigan\u2019s Democratic Senate melee. El-Sayed and Stevens are locked in one of the most divisive campaigns anyone in Michigan has seen. And while both candidates have pledged to support the nominee, it\u2019s becoming increasingly clear that this primary could poison their chances.<\/p>\n

Why Michigan\u2019s Democratic Senate primary is getting so much attention<\/h2>\n

There\u2019s a lot at stake in this race. Here\u2019s why:<\/p>\n

1. Holding Michigan is an absolute must for Democrats if they want any shot of retaking the Senate. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, providing Republicans with their best pickup opportunity this cycle. The GOP candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers, ran statewide against Slotkin just two years ago and lost narrowly, by about 20,000 votes out of about 5.5 million cast. Republicans start in a good place, in a state Trump has won twice, on a ticket that is strong up and down the ballot for the Michigan GOP.<\/p>\n

2. It features big ideological differences, especially about Israel and Gaza. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has figured prominently in the race (and has spent more than $30 million on Stevens\u2019 behalf), and that\u2019s in a state that had a massive \u201cuncommitted\u201d movement of pro-Gaza activists and is home to one of the largest Muslim populations in the United States.<\/p>\n

3. It will likely set the party\u2019s narrative heading into 2028. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Semafor\u2019s Dave Weigel nailed this: Every outcome will inform the 2028 debate. If El-Sayed wins the primary and general, progressives prove they can win in a big swing state. If he loses to Rogers, the center-left will blame the left, and El-Sayed will be a cautionary tale. If Stevens wins the nom and the general, it\u2019s another sign that moderate Ds are needed in swing states. If Stevens wins the nom but loses to Rogers, the left will blame the establishment and demand change.<\/p>\n

4. It encapsulates the establishment-vs.-outsiders narrative roiling Democrats this year. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Stevens is backed by Schumer and preferred by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; she has the backing of most of the statewide Democratic officials, including Peters and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. <\/p>\n

El-Sayed is backed by Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Rashida Tlaib, and has hired the consulting firm that helped power Zohran Mamdani\u2019s victory in New York City\u2019s 2025 mayoral race. He\u2019s taking aim at the establishment in Washington, and \u2014 as we saw on Friday \u2014 taking jabs at Whitmer, too. Divides within the party are opening into chasms. Some prominent moderate Democrats are now suggesting that they cannot or will not support him if he gets the nomination.<\/p>\n

The establishment Democrats argue that they know how to win in Michigan. Whitmer, after all, not only won two terms; she still has an approval rating above 50% in a state Trump carried. Slotkin won in 2024 running as a moderate. The model is replicable. But insurgent Democrats argue that the establishment has failed them, pointing to things like data centers, the lack of progress on some of their top policy priorities and \u2014 notably \u2014 Trump\u2019s victory: If the establishment was successful, how did that happen?<\/p>\n

Read more Trump orders signs warning of \u2018inaccurate information\u2019 at Smithsonian museum<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump is set to speak Monday in a battleground congressional district, about a week before the state\u2019s key Democratic Senate primary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":478,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Michigan is the center of the political universe for the next 2 weeks - Long Distance Movers USA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/longdistancemoversusas.com\/?p=479\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Michigan is the center of the political universe for the next 2 weeks - 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